Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:53 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 23 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 8/23/2010
The market gapped up on the open and the ES reached the
1080.25 resistance level (which was top tick for the day)
about 20 minutes into trading and reversed. A "trend down"
move broke the 1069.00-1068.50 zone but the ES turned back
up from 1067.25 just before noon. Sideways action was
resolved to the upside and the ES moved up to 1074.00, but a
1-2-3 top formed after 1173.75 was reversed, and then after
breaking 1071 the downside picked up some steam and the
market made new lows just before the close.
The action continues to turn out bearish. The ES tagged the
1080.25 resistance after gapping up, and it brought in
another bout of selling. If there is a bounce, it will just
set up another good reward/ risk opportunity on the short
side if this action continues. We have the August top in
place and an August to October drop was forecast early in
the month. A drop to that 1042-1040 area on the SP500 cash
could be seen soon if things don't change on Tuesday.
TUESDAY...
We get Existing Home Sales 30 minutes into the trading day
on Tuesday. If there is early strength, and the move
stalls/reverses near the initial resistance areas, it sets
up a good shorting opportunity. If the market obliges and
the initial support is broken, then an air pocket could be
below and cause a bit of panic selling. If there is early
weakness instead, a bounce should occur starting within the
first 40 minutes. If that does occur, the move will likely
fail near initial resistance if the market remains weak.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1068.50-1069.25
1073.50-1074.00 *key
1079.50-1080.25 *strong
1084.50-1085.25
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1062.25-1061.75 *key
1058.25-1057.75 *must hold
1054.00
1042-1040 {on SP500 CASH if symmetrical}, 5/25 & 6/8 lows
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1810.75-1811.50
1820.00-1820.50 *key
1842.00-1843.00 *strong
1848.25-1849.00 *major
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1800.50-1799.50 *key
1794.50-1793.75 *must hold
1788.50
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10188-10191
10232-10236 *key
10281-10286 *strong
10318-10322 *major
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10132-10127 *key
10116-10111 *must hold
10088
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by
TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures ($ES_F). However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:49 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 22 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:28 pm eastern time, 8/22/2010
On Friday the market opened lower and reached 1064.75 (just
over the 1064.00-1063.25 support) about 30 minutes into
trading, and then bounced 4.25 points to 1069.00 (prior
support turned resistance). The bounce didn't stick and the
market dropped to new lows for the day right at noon eastern
time. From there, the ES began to stair step higher from its
1061.75 low and reached the updated resistance at the
1071.50-1072.50 zone. The high was made at 1071.50, but the
1069.00-1068.50 area held 3 times and the market ended the
day in that last hour range.
The market got hit with a lot of selling last week. The
technicals are still negative, but starting at noon on
Friday the character changed for the first time all week.
So, there could be some more to go on the upside in this
bounce. If there is more rally coming, then it needs to
stick over the 1070 area to show strength, and not stall and
reverse back down. A break through the 1068.50-1068.00 area
on the ES and 1824.25-1823.25 area on the NQ that is not
quickly reversed right back up will turn the trends back
down.
MONDAY...
So, the initial support will need to hold to keep the market
in uptrends early on Monday, and in good enough shape for a
decent bounce before the down trends resume. If the initial
support is not held, then the selling could come in pretty
hard and take the market towards the 1042-1040 area on the
SP500 cash over the next day or so.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1071.50-1072.50
1077.25-1078.00
1080.25
1084.50-1085.25
1088.50-1089.50
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1069.00-1068.50
1066.50-1066.00
1058.25-1057.75
1054.00-1052.50
1039.50-1037.50, 1042-1040 on SP500 CASH
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1828.50-1829.50
1836.25-1837.25
1840.50
1844.25-1845.00
1848.75-1850.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1824.25-1823.25
1820.50-1819.75
1810.00-1809.50
1802.00-1801.25
1796.50-1794.75
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10207-10211
10278-10283
10307
10338-10340
10370-10375
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10184-10181
10168-10165
10130-10126
10116-10111
10088-10082
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures ($ES_F). However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:45 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 19 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:59 pm eastern time, 8/19/2010
The market was vulnerable and we wanted to short an early
bounce on Thursday. The ES opened lower, bounced to 1089.50
about 15 minutes into trading and reversed. The bottom fell
out and the ES went to the 1068.25-1067.50 support (1068.50
low, missed by 1 tick!) before bouncing to the updated
1073.50-1074.00 resistance. From 1074.00 the ES dropped to
1069.50 and turned up. Another bounce to updated 1075
resistance stopped that bounce, and from 1074.75 the ES
dropped to 1071.50 before turning up. A run up to 1078.00
followed, but it just set up another selling opportunity as
bounces were not able to stick and the ES dropped 7.50
points into the close.
Last week the market broke the rising wedge pattern I warned
of, and that kicked off a 60 point drop on the SP500 cash
and futures contracts. The market got oversold and rallied
back to retrace just over half of the drop. The market then
double topped on Tuesday and Wednesday, also just a bit
under the wedge break area, and then broke down again to a
key support area on Thursday. There was a decent bounce back
to 1078, but it didn't stick, and for the third day in a row
the market dropped into the close.
The intermediate term internal gauges look worse, and short
term they are in poor shape too. Right now there is not much
working in favor of the bulls, aside from bouncing off of a
pretty key support zone on Thursday. If that 1068 area on
the ES is not defended, then the move could pick up steam
and fall another 10 points on the the SP500. If the market
gets hit hard and the 1058 area on the ES is not reversed,
then there is the possibly of getting to the 1042-1040 area
on the SP500 cash on this leg down - likely on Monday
morning. There now would be a large cluster of numbers
there, as it would be a symmetrical drop and also coincide
with the 5/25 & 6/8 lows on the SP500 cash.
The market will likely be a better short when the bounces
stall out and reverse. The market ended the day in down
trends, so if there is early weakness that reverses from the
initial support it might make for a quick trade on the long
side. If there is a bounce that is reverses from the 1075
level or lower on the ES then it sets up a good shorting
opportunity for a ride down to the initial support and
possibly a good deal lower.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1078.00
1084.50-1085.25
1088.50-1089.50
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1069.50-1068.50
1064.00-1063.25
1058.25-1057.75
1054.00
1039.50-1037.50, 1042-1040 on SP500 CASH
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1830.00
1836.25-1837.25
1846.25-1847.00
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1811.00-1810.25
1802.00-1801.25
1796.50-1794.75
1789.50
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10283
10338-10340
10370-10375
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10202-10196
10165-10162
10116-10111
10088
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/RBIchat.htm
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:40 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 18 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 8/18/2010
We started Wednesday taking profits on 1/2 of the Put
position from Tuesday afternoon when the ES reached 1085,
locking in about 12 points basis the ES. The market bottomed
in the first 30 minutes of trading (at 1083.75 on the ES),
and then able to hold the pivotal 1088 area, the ES made its
way back to the 1098.00-1098.50 resistance zone by 2pm. That
set up a short, and once 1095 as broken a replay on
Tuesday's action was in gear. There was a bounce to "last
trapped" at 1095.25 (by the e-book, RTGL2) and that was sold
and the ES fell another 9.25 points to 1086.00 by the close.
We get the the Jobless Claims before the open on Thursday,
then the Leading Indicators and Philly Fed survey releases
30 minutes into the trading day. There are double tops on
the charts, and when the market is strong early and then
weak in the last hour, it's a bearish signal. Aside from the
poor chart patterns, a few internal gauges have reached an
overbought status. In addition, the sentiment made a shift
on Wednesday as the Vix made a 5 day low and reversed. The
futures settled well below fair value too, so the market is
vulnerable short term.
THURSDAY...
On Thursday the market should be sold on bounces, unless the
ES is able to break and hold over the initial resistance
areas. If there is an early pop up to test the initial
resistance, and the move stalls/ reverses then another good
leg down should be underway. If a drop to the 1081 area is
tested and quickly reversed, then a decent bounce could
occur. However, don't expect the bounces to stick. There is
a lot of resistance above, the technical picture isn't good,
the charts look toppy, sentiment shifted, and there is a gap
below on the daily chart that should be filled short term.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1092.50-1093.00
1095.25
1098.00-1098.50
1101.50-1102.00
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1085.50
1082.00-1080.75
1078.50-1078.50
1073.00-1072.50
1068.25-1067.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1849.50-1851.00
1854.75
1861.50-1862.50
1866.00-1866.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1835.50
1830.50-1829.75
1822.50-1821.50
1811.50-1810.50
1802.00-1801.25
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10398-10402
10423
10450-10455
10484-10488
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10344
10308-10303
10285-10282
10228-10223
10197-10193
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:38 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 17 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 8/17/2010
The ES gapped up almost 10 points on open on Tuesday, then
reversed down from just under 1088.00 on ES and just over
1838.25 on the NQ and they dropped to 1083.25 and 1830.00
respectively before bouncing. After pushing through the
1092.50 resistance area, that turned into support as the ES
went for the next resistance around 1097-1098. The move lost
steam and reversed from 1098.50 on the ES and the break of
1095.50 brought in more selling. The market gave back gains
as it dropped to the key support at 1088 just before
settlement.
With the market coming out of deep oversold territory and
the Vix giving 3 of 5 buy signals on Monday, the market had
reason to rally on Tuesday, and it did. However, the
reversal from that 1098 resistance and subsequent 10 point
drop into the close means it's not out of trouble just yet.
The Tuesday highs might be another short term top before the
downside gathers some momentum. It will depend upon whether
or not the initial resistance areas are exceeded and held.
WEDNESDAY...
On Wednesday look for early strength to be sold, especially
if the initial resistance areas are tested/ rejected. If the
market obliges and the 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is
broken through, then a trip towards the 1082.50-1081.75 zone
is likely before the market tries another bounce. The
1078.50-1078.50 would be key support on the next decent drop
if there is not a reaction off of that 1082.50 area. On the
other side of the coin, if the initial support is exceeded,
then the 1088 area should be safe and we could get one more
push higher to test or slightly exceed the 1098.50 high from
Tuesday. This is not highly probable however, so favor
selling bounces down to the support zones unless the initial
support is exceeded on Wednesday.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1092.75-1093.50
1095.75
1098.00-1098.50
1101.50-1102.00
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1088.00-1087.50
1082.50-1081.75
1078.50-1078.50
1073.00-1072.50
1068.25-1067.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1849.50-1851.00
1854.00
1860.00-1860.50
1865.00-1866.00
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1837.75-1835.75
1830.50-1829.75
1822.50-1821.50
1811.50-1810.50
1811.50-1810.50
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10414-10418
10437
10454-10458
10484-10488
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10356-10353
10321-10316
10285-10282
10228-10223
10197-10193
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 23, 2010 @ 05:35 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 16 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 8/16/2010
The market gapped down on the open and reversed back up
after about 5 minutes of trading. That kicked off a rally
from 1066.50 to 1079.50 on the ES that stalled and reversed
and a pullback then turned up from 1075.00. That bounce lost
steam and the ES couldn't hold 1080 so selling came in early
after noon. The ES dropped from 1080.50 (just under 1081.00
resistance) to 1072.75 with about 40 minutes left in
trading. A bounce reached 1078.00 updated resistance and
went sideways into the close.
It looks like we can have a bit more upside short term. The
internal gauges are just coming out of extreme oversold
territory, helping prop the market up on Monday. The Vix
reversed and closed lower, giving several buy signals there.
As long as the initial support is held on a pullback, the
market will have a chance to push higher. The upside likely
won't be easy however, unless the ES can get over 1080 and
stay over that level. If that is rejected again on Tuesday,
and bulls don't defend initial support areas, then the rally
may need to wait until the 1066.50 area is tested. If they
drop back down to that area and a reversal does not occur,
then a little melt down is in gear.
So, look for a shorting opportunity if the market opens
higher on Tuesday. If the initial resistance is reversed,
then a test of the initial support at Monday's last hour
lows is in the cards. If that area is defended and a leaves
a double bottom in place, then a run back to, or over, the
1081.00-1081.25 area could be in the cards. Again, that area
needs to be exceeded, and then hold around 1080 on a dip, to
continue to push higher. Unless that occurs, the market will
need to drop first before there is a rally attempt.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1078.00-1078.50
1081.00-1082.50
1084.25-1085.00
1088.00
1091.50-1092.50 *major
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1073.00-1072.50
1068.25-1067.50
1064.00
1061.50-1061.00
1058.25-1057.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1822.00-1822.50
1827.25-1828.25
1832.00-1833.00
1838.25
1843.25-1844.50 major
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1811.50-1810.50
1802.00-1801.25
1794.50
1791.75-1790.50
1787.50-1786.75
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10277-10282
10304-10307
10328-10332
10372
10394-10398 *major
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10228-10223
10197-10193
10168
10142-10138
10108-10103
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
************************************************
Posted by Julie Reed on Mon, Aug 16, 2010 @ 05:36 PM
|
Hi Everybody,
Still haven't decided about getting "Read the Greed-LIVE! Vol.II"?
You owe it to yourself to read this email!
Today a student who has been studying Mike's course over the past several months emailed us. He was notifying us of a winning trade he took this afternoon using Mike's techniques which are the basis of the course.
The really cool thing was that Mike actually took the very same trade. It was a setup Mike calls "Last Trapped", and it played out this afternoon.
The trade entry is indicated in the chart below denoted by the red arrow. It was a short trade and it yielded about 4 points. Mike's student told us he scalped out of the first half of his position, just as Mike teaches, and kept a stop in place exiting at the next obvious support level with a limit order. (can't see the chart, go here: http://www.tradestalker.com/LastTrpped.jpg)
What Mike teaches
-
IS REAL
-
IT WORKS
-
YOU CAN LEARN HOW to apply it to YOUR trading!
Our introductory price ends this Thursday, August 19th. The price will go up after that.
Don't miss out on the discounted price...get your course today!
http://www.tradestalker.com/RTGLive.htm
To Your Success,
Julie
TradeStalker.com
|
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures ($ES_F). However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 16, 2010 @ 12:01 PM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 15 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 8/15/2010
The market started last week by rallying to new highs for
the move up on Monday. However, after churning for 7 days in
a row, the sentiment shifted by Monday's close (giving a
number of Vix sell signals) and then on Wednesday the rising
wedge on the daily chart was broken. The market nose dived
to 1070.50 on the ES, and then on Thursday and Friday that
gap fill area at 1084.50 on the ES and 1937 on the NQ turned
into resistance on the bounces. On Friday, the lower open
was bought and the ES ran up to the 1084.00 level (1084.50-
1085.00 key resistance) where a little 1-2-3 top was made,
and a 7.75 point drop to 1076.25 (1 tick under the 1077.25-
1076.50 key area) occurred before noon. The trend turned up
and able to hold 1080 they pushed to 1083.75 and that was
rejected. It set up another good shorting opportunity, and
when the bounce to updated 1081 was reversed the market
closed the day at its lows.
The market is still in trouble and unless there is some
surprise it should test the 1071.50-1070.50 area on the ES
before any attempt to bounce occurs. The market is oversold,
but the action has been the opposite of the way is was on
the way up to the 1126 area on the ES. The market is acting
"heavy" and has a good offer over head on the bounces. The
market bounces stall as bids dry up, and down goes the
market. Until the market perks up and shows some bullish
action, the bounces are going to fail and the short side
will be the easier trade.
MONDAY...
On Monday look for early weakness to be reversed in the
first 40 minutes of trading, if there is going to be an
oversold bounce for a few hours or so. If the ES drops to
the 1071.50-1070.50 area, it needs to quickly reverse or
else it will likely push though to the 1068.25-1067.50 area
before trying to turn back up. In any case, even if there is
a decent rebound from lower prices, the market will be
vulnerable and the ultimate low might not be in place for
awhile unless/ until there is a move back over the 1085 area
that is not quickly reversed.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1078.50
1081.00-1082.50
1084.25-1085.00 *key
1091.50-1092.50 *major
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1074.00
1071.50-1070.50 *key
1068.25-1067.50
1061.50-1061.00
1058.25-1057.50
1053.00-1052.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1821.25
1825.50-1826.25
1829.50-1830.25 *key
1838.25-1839.00 *major
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1812.50
1807.50-1806.50 *key
1802.00-1801.25
1792.50-1791.75
1787.50-1786.75
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10282
10304-10307
10328-10332 *key
10394-10398 *major
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10241
10228-10223 *key
10197-10193
10142-10138
10108-10103
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 16, 2010 @ 11:58 AM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 12 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:10 pm eastern time, 8/12/2010
After breaking the rising wedge pattern and dropping hard on
Wednesday, the ES followed that by opening down almost 14
points on Thursday. That was instantly reversed and the ES
rallied to the 1084.50-1085.00 updated resistance before
noon. A pullback followed and then that 1184.50 level was
tested and reversed again and the ES dropped 7+ points to
1077.25 with 90 minutes left for stock trading. A bounce back
to the 1084.50-1085.00 area fizzled and made a little 1-2-3
top and then pulled back 6+ points into the close.
The intermediate term indicators have rolled over, so bigger
picture that 1126.75 high looks like the top for an August
high. The break of a rising wedge pattern puts a lot of
resistance above the market so an oversold bounce is
possible but likely will not stick. August highs and October
lows are not uncommon. At the moment that appears to be the
case and should lead to basic downside action for a few
months.
The market action is still poor, and there should be more
downside coming judging by the market action. However,
unless the market is in a mini melt-down mode, a test of the
Thursday lows (or a bit lower) could give the market a
bounce. The horrible internals over the last 3 days
(including a closing Trin at 6.31 on Wednesday) has the
market getting oversold. My 3 day thrust oscillator is at -
.73 (+/-.50 is the normal overbought/ oversold) and my RBI
Oscillator is close to a buy signal. In addition, the Vix
jumped over 16% on the open on Thursday morning and reversed
and gave 2 of 5 possible buy signals. These all have better
odds of starting a market reversal when the SP500 is above
the 200 day moving average, but serve as a heads up for a
turn around even if from lower prices.
FRIDAY....
We get the PPI and Retail Sales numbers before the open on
Friday, and the Michigan sentiment survey 25 minutes into
the day. The market was able to rally back to fill the gaps
on the daily charts on Thursday, but they turned into strong
resistance on the bounce. However, the move up off of the
open on Thursday morning likely has some shorts still
trapped below. A drop to test those lows that stalls/
reverses will set up a buying opportunity on Friday. Aside
from that, the bounces will still be a short when the upside
runs out of steam and stalls/ reverses unless there is a
move over the 1084.50-1085.00 area and it holds on a dip,
instead of reversing back to the downside.
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1084.50-1085.00
1091.50-1092.50
1097.50-1098.00
1101.00-1102.00
1108.75-1109.75
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1077.25-1076.50 *key early
1074.00
1071.50-1070.50
1068.25-1067.50
1061.50-1061.00
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1837.50-1838.25
1848.50-1849.00
1858.25-1859.00
1864.75-1866.00
1882.00-1883.00
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1824.00-1823.25 *key early
1818.00
1812.50-1811.50
1807.00-1806.25
1797.50-1795.75
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10328-10332
10394-10398
10436-10441
10468-10471
10540-10544
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10263-10260 *key early
10241
10228-10223
10197-10193
10142-10138
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
Posted by Mike Reed on Mon, Aug 16, 2010 @ 11:53 AM
.................................................
TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
8 / 10 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:29 pm eastern time, 8/10/2010
With the technicals looking poor, and on several Vix Sell
signals, the market gapped down on Tuesday and kept going
until the ES dropped just a tick under the 1109.25-1108.50
zone and turned back up. A rebound failed at 1115.00, and
then the 1110.25 support was bought in front of the Fed
release. The ES ran up to 1125.00, but topped out and made
several good swings before pulling back into the close.
The short and intermediate term indicators are still not
looking very good. The bottom of the rising wedge on the
daily chart was tested on Tuesday, and held so far. Now the
market is back to the top of the range. The SP500 cash has
closed between 1120 and 1128 for 7 straight days now. The
Dow cash keeps getting turned away from 10700 area, and the
ES has the same problem staying over 1125 very long. It's
about time for the market to make a move. A failure to get
over the 1121 level on the ES and 1900 level on the NQ - and
hold - is a sign of a weak market on Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY...
On Wednesday look for early strength to set up a shorting
opportunity if the initial resistance is not able to be
exceeded/ held in the first 30 minutes or so. If that plays
out and the initial support is tested/ held, then one more
push higher could occur. If the initial support areas are
not held, then that 1110.25 area on the ES will need to be
defended or the market will be breaking down.
NOTE: I'm taking a night off and taking 2 boys to a baseball
game on Wednesday, so there will not be an update on
Wednesday Night. The next nightly update will be sent on
Thursday.
regards, Mike
September 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1125.00
1127.50-1128.25 *strong
1131.75-1132.50
1138.00-1139.25 *major
September 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu0 / big contract =spu0
1115.50-1114.75
1110.25
1108.25-1107.50
1105.75
1103.75-1103.00 *major
September 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1908.25
1912.50-1913.00
1917.50-1918.00 *strong
1926.50-1927.50
September 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu0 / big contract = ndu0
1894.25-1892.50
1882.00
1878.50-1877.50
1872.25
1870.00-1868.50
September 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu0
10662
10680-10684]
10712-10717
10769-10774 *major
September 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu0
10591-10587
10548
10511-10507
10484
10475-10470 *major
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
************************************************